Allianz expects Bulgarian exports to increase by 10.5% thanks to Schengen membership

Bulgaria and Romania's full entry into the Schengen area on January 1, 2025, is expected to lead to a significant growth in Bulgarian exports by 10.5%. This is calculated by analysts at Allianz Trade (ed. – Euler Hermes), a company specializing in credit risk insurance. Their forecast predicts an 8.5% growth in goods and a 12.5% growth in services.

If the country were a Schengen member in 2023, trade volume would have been at least $3.3 billion higher," Allianz Trade experts point out.

Converted into local currency at today's exchange rate, this would mean an increase of about 6 billion leva. According to their calculations, the removal of border control is expected to reduce the time spent crossing borders by an average of about 20 minutes.

Bulgaria outside the eurozone

Allianz Trade analysts also estimate that Bulgarian businesses are missing out on a potential increase in their exports by billions of euros because Bulgaria is not yet part of the eurozone.

According to their calculations, this means a missed potential increase in export volume of $2.6 billion for 2023. Converted into local currency at today's exchange rate, this would mean missed benefits of nearly 5 billion leva.

According to Allianz calculations, Bulgarian exports will grow by 5.8% annually after Bulgaria joins the eurozone. Trade in goods should increase by 3.3%, and growth in services is expected to reach 8.4%.

Thus, the overall effect on the country's GDP after entering the eurozone would be an increase of 0.2% per year.

Translated by Tzvetozar Vincent Iolov