The unforeseen effects of the Presidency

“I am glad that the people in our country strongly support the European Union and are interested in the issues that the EU is facing. This is one of the effects of the rotating presidency of the Union.” This statement of an Estonian sociologist is part of the summary after the end of the Estonian Presidency, and a survey on the attitudes towards it. In the first days of the Bulgarian Presidency, we are asking ourselves what would be the picture in the last days of June 2018. And the most important question is - will the long-awaited de-provincialisation of our European policy take place?

The presidency of the Council of EU is undoubtedly a chance for Europe to learn something about Bulgaria beyond the cliché of it being the poorest and most corrupt member state. Bulgarian institutions, ruling politicians and civil servants will play a major role for the image of Bulgaria.

At the same time, a study by the European Council on Foreign Relations on the ability and willingness of member states to co-operate with each other has shown that Bulgaria is the least sought-after partner, and the last as it comes to responsiveness to inquiries about common positions with other member states. The country is also next to the last of all 28 states with regard to connectivity with the others when it comes to seeking common interests. How will Bulgaria act as a rotating president - whether as a unifier in the name of the European consent, or as a passive observer that will practically help for the deepening of the faults in the EU - the way our country is seen in the future will depend on this.

The focus of the next months will be on the ability of Bulgarian representatives to respond to the problems and the expectations of the citizens adequately.

What will be the main issues on which Bulgaria can and will be expected to have a position, as well as aim at achieving consensus? 

Task 1: Unity in the face of the populist (and the Russian) threat

If 2017 was the year of hopes that a new horizon will appear before Europe, 2018 has to become the year of their fulfilment. The continuing economic upsurge in the whole of Europe is very optimistic, but dangers are far from being in the past. The populists won in Austria and the Czech Republic, and this year, they will also have big chances during the elections in Italy. In Germany, about a fifth of the Bundestag consists of far-left and far-right MPs.

The numerous investigations have proved that Russia is quick to take advantage of the weakness of the big traditional political parties and is trying to have a destructive influence on the political agenda of the various countries and the EU as a whole: from Kremlin's support for Marine Le Pen, through the media intervention in the referendum in Catalunya, to its role as catalyst for Brexit. But let us be aware that the problems and dissatisfaction of the EU, on which the populist sentiment broke out, were not the work of Russia - it simply used them.

Against this background, preserving European unity is difficult, but is a key task for the Presidency, especially since the European Commission started the procedure under Art. 7 to limit the rights of Poland. And when the German-French engine starts to work in the spring, the smaller countries will seek balance against this powerful tandem. Bulgaria can claim neutrality, but that alone will not be enough.

Task 2: More European security

The territorial losses of Islamic State in the past year are good news, but the continuing decay of a number of countries in the Near East is a fact - and along with it, the concerns of Europeans about terrorism. In order to remain open and democratic, the European communities will have to have a much higher degree of protection from the EU - especially given the hesitant position of the United States.

PESCO, the defence co-operation mechanism is yet to be filled with content. None of the 17 projects for joint actions in medical insurance, logistics or crisis response has been initiated by Bulgaria. If, however, it wants to contribute to European defence and security, as a rotating president, Sofia will have the chance to organize the consultative formats of the 25 PESCO member states. If the European defence does not move forward in the first six months of its existence, this will question all the otherwise good intentions.

Task 3: Common solutions on migration

The fears of Europeans on this topic are the greatest, which is why it will continue driving political decisions in 2018. And if the predictions of newly increased migratory pressure on the Balkan route turn out to be true, reaching an agreement among all member states will become the first priority of the EU - and of the rotating presidency. The German government under Merkel’s leadership will have to show to its constituency that it is not alone in dealing with migration, and Italy - that it is not forever abandoned by Europe on this issue. Poland and Hungary, with almost no refugees from the Near East on their territory, will continue to deny every relocation system. Against this background, Bulgaria will have to carefully look for the little where an agreement is possible. This decision is likely to be a combination of the border management and the scheme for quicker return of immigrants whose asylum applications have been denied.

Task 4: To bring back the Western Balkans to the EU agenda

This task seems easy to execute given the scheduled Western Balkans Summit on 17th May in Sofia. But the ambition to move our neighbouring countries closer to their membership will probably have no significant realization. That is why the Summit in May must show concrete results outside the expansion process. Roaming and Corridor No. 8 are modest, but sufficiently concrete goals. However, if the Bulgarian Presidency is really ambitious in this area, it will have to find a way to include the Western Balkans in the discussions on important topics, such as European defence and  migration.

But even if it does not succeed in the “aerobatic flight” of strategic thinking for its European policy, through the EU Presidency, Bulgaria will take the path to its de-provincialisation. More and more Bulgarian politicians and officials will know how the EU functions, why it is necessary to have a position and with whom to co-operate in order to realize it. The Europeanisation of Bulgaria will be taken one step further, no matter if we want it or not.